AdaptationReturn NRW
Building ROI indicators for climate adaptation in North Rhine-Westphalia
Resilens is developing and validating a new set of ex-ante ROI indicators for climate adaptation to help public and private decision-makers understand which adaptation measures are likely to create the greatest impact and value before investments are made.
Together with the Landesamt für Natur, Umwelt und Klima Nordrhein-Westfalen (LANUK NRW), selected indicators will be tested in real-world applications and prepared for integration into the Klimaatlas NRW.
Project period: 1 September 2026 – 29 February 2028
Project location: Wuppertal, North Rhine-Westphalia
Co-funded by the European Union
The AdaptationReturn NRW project is co-funded by the European Union and the State of North Rhine-Westphalia through the Grüne Gründungen.NRW programme within the EFRE/JTF Programme NRW 2021–2027. LANUK participates through methodological review, data and integration expertise and user-oriented validation; it does not receive project funding.
Gefördert durch die Europäische Union und das Land Nordrhein-Westfalen.
PROJECT OVERVIEW
From adaptation options to better investment decisions
Climate adaptation increasingly requires organisations to make investment decisions across large numbers of buildings, infrastructure assets and possible measures.
Climate-risk data can show where exposure is increasing. Technical guidance can show which adaptation measures are available. But decision-makers still often lack a consistent way to assess what a measure is expected to achieve, what it costs and whether the investment case is strong enough to act.
The AdaptationReturn NRW project addresses this decision gap.
Resilens will develop and validate 3–5 decision-relevant indicators that quantify the expected benefits and economic value of climate adaptation before implementation. These may include avoided impacts, protection of critical functions, wider social and environmental benefits, costs and cost-benefit relationships.
The indicators will be developed using NRW-specific data, documented transparently and tested with municipalities and operators of sensitive infrastructure. Selected indicators will then be prepared for technical integration into the Klimaatlas NRW.
The objective is not to create another climate-risk score. It is to provide a transparent evidence base for deciding where adaptation investment creates the greatest value.
THE CHALLENGE
Municipalities and operators of schools, childcare facilities, hospitals, care facilities, housing and other infrastructure face increasing climate risks. Yet the information needed to make adaptation decisions is often spread across climate datasets, technical assessments, building information and financial calculations.
Fragmented decision inputs
Climate hazards, vulnerability, costs and expected benefits are frequently assessed separately.
Limited ex-ante evidence
The impact of adaptation measures is often difficult to quantify before implementation.
Missing common indicators
There is currently no broadly established framework that consistently translates the expected impact of adaptation measures into decision-relevant economic and societal indicators.
Difficult investment prioritisation
Decision-makers need to compare measures and locations when budgets are limited.
WHAT WE ARE DEVELOPING
A transparent framework for adaptation investment decisions
01
Develop AdaptationReturn indicators
Develop 3–5 prioritised indicators that connect adaptation measures with expected impacts, costs and benefits. Potential dimensions include avoided impacts, functional resilience, economic value and wider environmental and social benefits.
02
Build reproducible NRW data pipelines
Combine relevant NRW datasets with Resilens methodologies and models to calculate indicators consistently across different locations. The methodology will explicitly document assumptions, data sources, limitations and uncertainty.
03
Validate indicators with real users
Test the indicators with municipalities and operators of sensitive infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, care facilities and housing portfolios. Feedback will focus on relevance, comprehensibility, usability and usefulness for real investment decisions.
04
Integrate selected indicators into the Klimaatlas NRW
Develop the data formats, interfaces and update processes required to make selected indicators available within the Klimaatlas NRW environment.
PROJECT SCOPE
What AdaptationReturn NRW funds
The funded project focuses specifically on:
development and validation of selected ex-ante ROI indicators for climate adaptation
methodological specifications and transparent documentation
NRW-specific data preparation and downscaling
reproducible calculation and update pipelines
user testing with municipalities and infrastructure operators
visualisation and usability of the indicators
API and layer preparation for the Klimaatlas NRW
validation, case studies and knowledge transfer
AdaptationReturn NRW and Flood-AdaptationReturn are separate R&D projects with different objectives and funded scopes.
AdaptationReturn NRW focuses on the development, validation and NRW-wide integration of decision and ROI indicators for climate adaptation, including their use within the Klimaatlas NRW.
The separately funded Flood-AdaptationReturn project focuses exclusively on building-level flood-risk assessment and the economic prioritisation of measures addressing heavy rainfall and river flooding.
The projects therefore have separate work packages, budgets, funding programmes, project locations and project accounting. Costs are allocated exclusively to the respective funded project.
PROJECT GOALS
What the project aims to achieve
Establish decision-ready adaptation indicators
Develop indicators that make the expected effectiveness and economic value of adaptation measures understandable before implementation.
Improve investment prioritisation
Help decision-makers compare locations and measures based on expected impact and value.
Make assumptions transparent
Document methodologies, data sources, uncertainties and calculation logic so that results can be understood and challenged.
Validate the approach in practice
Develop and refine the indicators together with municipalities and operators facing real adaptation decisions.
Bring adaptation economics into the Klimaatlas NRW
Prepare selected indicators for integration into one of Germany’s established regional climate-information platforms.
Create a transferable methodology
Design methods, data pipelines and interfaces so that successful approaches can later be adapted to other regions and applications.
Project phases
01
Indicator definition and preparation
Identify candidate indicators, define methodologies and assess the required NRW datasets.
02
Stakeholder alignment
Prioritise indicators together with LANUK NRW and clarify technical and methodological requirements.
03
Method development
Develop prototype calculations, NRW datasets, downscaling approaches and the first version of the methodology documentation.
04
User validation
Test relevance and usability with municipalities and operators of sensitive infrastructure.
05
Indicator refinement
Improve calculations, compare methodological alternatives and develop appropriate visualisations.
06
Indicator selection
Agree which indicators are sufficiently robust and useful to proceed to technical integration.
07
Klimaatlas integration
Develop data pipelines, interfaces and layers for the Klimaatlas NRW test environment.
08
Final validation
Conduct user testing and refine the indicators and visual presentation.
09
Transfer and communication
Document the methodology, develop case studies and communicate project results to practitioners and the wider adaptation community.
Project facts
Project focus
Development, validation and Klimaatlas NRW integration of ex-ante ROI indicators for climate adaptation
Funding information
Supported by the European Union and the State of North Rhine-Westphalia
The AdaptationReturn NRW project is supported through the Grüne Gründungen.NRW programme within the EFRE/JTF Programme North Rhine-Westphalia 2021–2027.
The project supports the development of new digital approaches for making climate adaptation more effective, transparent and economically assessable.
Funding specifically supports the development and validation of AdaptationReturn indicators, NRW-specific methodologies and data pipelines, user testing and preparation for integration into the Klimaatlas NRW.
CONTACT
Interested in the project?
Are you responsible for climate-adaptation investments across a municipality, infrastructure portfolio or organisation? We are particularly interested in exchanging with organisations that need to compare adaptation measures, prioritise investments or build stronger evidence for adaptation funding decisions.